Month: September 2020

Roam Notes on Balaji Srinivasan’s “Applications: Today & 2025”

  • {{[[youtube]]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jPYk7ucrjo}}
  • Title:: Applications: Today & 2025
  • Author:: [[Balaji Srinivasan]]
  • Source:: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jPYk7ucrjo
  • Reading Status:: [[complete]]
  • Review Status:: [[complete]]
  • Tags:: #Entrepreneurship #startups #Technology #crypto #decentralization #shared
  • Roam Notes URL:: https://www.marknagelberg.com/roam-notes-on-balaji-srinivasans-applications-today-2025/
  • Anki Tag:: srinivasan_apps_today_2025
  • Anki Deck Link:: link

  • Notes

    • Overview: [[Balaji Srinivasan]] discusses about crypto applications in 2020 and also beyond that point to 2025. Also includes a history of how we got to the present moment, and some underpinning concepts of all [[crypto]] projects.
    • 1:45 Talk begins
    • 2:20 Why [[Bitcoin]] was invented in the first place. It represents the latest step in a progression of digital cash: #money #payments #Ankified
      1. Physical cash: A hands B cash and B no longer has it.
      2. Naive digital cash solution: A sends B serial number via email, but A still has a copy, so this doesn’t work
      3. Centralized digital cash: A bank C acts as trusted intermediary – debits A and credits B.
      4. Decentralized digital cash: Centralized bank C is replaced by decentralized networks of competing miners updating a [[blockchain]].
    • 5:25 [[blockchain]] is the fundamental innovation behind [[Bitcoin]]. There are many blockchains; for example [[Ethereum]], which is more programmable than bitcoin and allows for [[smart contracts]]. Allows for more complex transactions than simple "debit A and credit B".
    • 8:06 Technological concepts underlying [[blockchain]] projects
      • [[blockchain]] is a database for storing things of value. Although slower than centralized databases, they provide tamper-resistant shared state in an adversarial environment.
      • 9:15 [[Bitcoin]] is a [[protocol]] – you can open [[Wireshark]] and see raw packets updating the underlying [[blockchain]]. Entirely packet-driven without reference to a bank. So, machines can now hold and send money.
      • 13:30 [[blockchain]] means having a greater choice over who to [[trust]]. Previously you had to store money at one of a few banks; now you can store at a bank, exchange, or any computer.
      • 13:54 [[blockchain]] enables internet-scale [[cap tables]]. Cap tables are tables examining who owns what percentage of a company. #Ankified
      • 16:10 [[blockchain]] breaks [[network effects]] because token upside is inversely proportional to network effects. For example, competitor to Facebook could issue tokens to new users, giving value to early users that decline in value as the network size increases. Turns customers into investor-like entities. #Ankified
      • 17:30 [[blockchain]] will transform [[Social Networks]], moving from liking and poking and messaging to real value being create (paid DMs, surveys, task)
      • 18:00 [[blockchain]] is a partial move from [[the cloud]] toward more privacy. Users increasingly keep private keys local and private, and this will be an anchor leading other data being encrypted and moved locally. The bulk of data will still be remote, but it will only be decrypted when you download it locally.
    • 19:15 The [[blockchain]] community
      • A blockchain community is economically aligned. "If they’re holders, none of them can win unless they all win". #incentives #[[crypto cliff]]
        • For example, with [[DNS]] if someone seizes a lol.cat domain, you keep your .com domain so you don’t really care. In contrast, seizing a person’s .ens domain means interfering with the [[Ethereum]] blockchain. "You now have a monetary incentive to defend another’s rights". He calls this the [[crypto cliff]]. #Ankified
      • 21:30 This allows for experiments in [[self-governance]]. Suddenly, [[macroeconomics]] becomes an experimental science. "If [[federalism]] meant the laboratory of the states, [[decentralization]] is creating the laboratory of the networks.
    • 23:08 Applications: 2020, i.e. what are the successful things currently built with [[crypto]]?
      • These are things already built at scale at 2020: [[exchanges]], [[hardware wallets]], [[miners]], [[issuance]], [[stablecoins]], [[defi]]
    • 25:30 Applications: 2025, i.e. the stuff that’s up-and-coming and might be big in 2025 in [[crypto]]? #[[startup ideas]]
      • [[privacy coins]] (e.g. [[Dash]], [[Monero]], [[ZCash]]).
      • [[Lending]] and [[Interest]] (e.g. [[Compound]], [[Maker]])
      • [[Scaling]] (e.g. [[Starkware]] and many others)
      • [[Decentralized Cold Storage]] (e.g. [[Casa]]) helping people store at home that don’t technically know how to do that, so this provides services that allow you to do that.
      • [[SaaS-for-gas]] (e.g. [[Starkware]] and others). Smart contracts that are on-chain and charge for each API call. Right now you have to do a Stripe billing layer, but maybe put in a code snippet and you have a function that executes and makes you money.
      • [[Insurance]]
      • [[Multiwallets]] which add more functionality than send/receive, adding new verbs like buy, sell, sign, vote, stake, register, etc.
      • [[Security]]
      • Novel [[financial instruments]]
      • Blockchain games
      • Crypto [[Social Networks]]
      • Decentralized [[DNS]]
      • Automated Market Making
      • Decentralized [[Identity]]
      • [[Personal Tokenization]]: issuing an equity-like token for your time or some function of your time.
      • [[Mutuals]] and [[Guilds]]: Attempt to incentivize collective action (e.g. [[Moloch]], [[Gitcoin]])
      • [[Founder’s Rewards]]: New business model for funding developers from rewards (e.g. [[Zcash]], [[BCH]]).
      • On-Chain Developer Bounties (e.g. [[Tezos]])
      • Clients for [[dApps]] to make it easy to interface with these applications (e.g. [[InstaDApp]])
      • [[Developer Tools]]
      • Oracles and [[Prediction Markets]]
      • [[Decentralized Autonomous Organizations]] – semi-autonomous programs, many of which make you money.
      • [[Community-Owned Organizations]]
    • 36:33 Q&A
      • Internet companies have captured a lot of value from [[data monopolies]] or [[attention]]? Where do you think the value capture will come from for the [[crypto]] applications in the next 10-15 years?
        • Balaji is bullish on [[tasking]]. "It’s the better-than-free economy. Rather than trying to hack your [[attention]], they are paying you for it".
          • [[crypto]] uniquely enables this for a lot of reasons, but one big reason in ease of [[pay-outs]]. [[pay-ins]] are hard, and [[Stripe]] has succeeded by making them easier, but pay-outs are even harder. As an example, think about how many sites where you’ve entered in a credit card to pay for something (pay-in). Probably 50-100 sites. Now, think about how many sites you’ve entered in your bank account information to get paid yourself for a service? Probably no more than 5, possibly none, because a website with your bank account information could potentially debit as well as credit. #[[pay-outs vs pay-ins]]

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Roam Notes: Elon Musk Interview from Air Warfare Symposium 2020

  • Author:: [[Elon Musk]] [[General John F. Thompson]]
  • Source:: link
  • Tags:: #Business #Management #Leadership #Innovation #SpaceX #Tesla #Government #shared
  • Roam Notes URL:: link
  • Anki Tag:: musk_2020_air_warfare_symposium
  • Anki Deck Link:: link
  • Reading Status:: [[complete]]
  • Review Status:: [[complete]]
  • {{[[youtube]]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sp8smJFaKYE}}

  • Overview

    • [[General John F. Thompson]] interviews [[Elon Musk]] with a focus on [[innovation]], and how organizations such as the [[US Air Force]] can become more innovative. The interview contains practical information for senior management in large organizations that want to improve innovation.

  • Notes

    • 6:15 Interview Begins. How do you ensure products don’t remain static and incrementally improve over time? #[[radical innovation]]
      • It’s important to push for radical [[breakthroughs]]. If you don’t push for these, you won’t get radical outcomes. To get a big [[reward]], you must have a big [[risk]]. The [[US]] will fall behind in [[innovation]] if it doesn’t continue to do this. It’s a risk today and wasn’t in the past.
    • 13:00 Is this need driven by competition with other countries? Or is this regardless of competition? #competition
      • Without a doubt, if the [[US]] doesn’t make big moves in [[space]], it will be second place in space. [[Innovation]] is the key attribute of the US and it needs to use it.
    • 14:00 What does the US need to do to maintain that innovative competitive edge? #Ankified
      • [[Outcome-Based Procurement]] is very important. You say "this is the outcome sought" and whoever can achieve this outcome to a greater degree the [[government]] will do business with. #Procurement
    • 17:45 The workforce is a key component in radical innovation. What do you do to motivate a workforce to help them become more radically innovative? #Hiring #incentives #[[encouraging innovation in an organization]] #Ankified
      • The most important thing to do is to make sure that you have an incentive structure where innovation is rewarded and lack of innovation is punished. Carrot and stick. People that are innovating should be promoted sooner, and if someone’s in a role where innovation should be happening and it’s not, then they should not be promoted or exited. "Then let me tell you, you’ll get [[innovation]] real fast. How much do you want?"
    • 19:40 Wouldn’t that make people too risk averse?
      • You have to have some acceptance of failure – failure has to be an option. If you don’t allow trying and failing you might get something worse than lack of innovation – things may go backwards. "You want reward and punishment to be proportionate to the actions you seek." Reward for trying and succeeding, minor consequences for trying and failing, and major negative consequences for not trying. "With that incentive structure you’ll get innovation like you won’t believe."
    • 21:20 **What about processes – are there processes you recommend to bring about radical change? **
      • Designing a production system of a new product is at least 1-2 orders of magnitude harder than designing the initial prototype.
      • Designing a rocket easy. Making one of it is hard. The making of a production line that builds and launches many is extremely hard.
    • 26:00 [[Starlink]] – as you scale to build more and more satellites and launch them, what are challenges you’ve had to overcome? #Ankified
      • It’s important to have a tight feedback loop between the [[design]] of the object and the [[manufacturing]] system. When you design, you don’t realize the parts that are difficult to manufacture, so bring manufacturing and design up together. Counterintuitively, it can be the right thing to do to manufacture the wrong thing, i.e. build it before design is done, because you discover what’s hard to manufacture.
    • 29:15 To figure out what to build, you could query customers ("customer pull", e.g. improving a [[Tesla]] based on customer feedback), or innovate and push something into the customer base ("company push", e.g. iPad). How do you think about that balance? #Ankified
      • [[Henry Ford]] once said that if you ask the public what they want, they would have said "a faster horse". When it’s a radically new product, people don’t know they want it because it’s not in their scope. Customer feedback once they have the fundamental product is a good thing, though. #[[market research]] #[[customer research]]
    • 34:00 In the next 5 years, what technology do you think will see the most advancement?
      • [[AI]] will be the most fundamentally transformative. Computer science and physics is what you would want to study to prepare for this future. If you want to understand the nature of the universe, these two fields have great predictive power.
    • 35:23 What should the Air Force be investing more in for innovation, other than reusable rockets?
      • Once you have dramatically reduced cost access to space, many things are enabled. Analogy: the [[Union Pacific Railroad]] made travel across the country much faster and less dangerous.
    • 41:30 The failures you’ve had to endure would drive many nuts. What’s the mindset to get through that?
      • You want the net useful output to be maximized. In baseball, it’s three strikes and you’re out. What you mostly care about is not any individual at-bat but the overall batting average. [[Failure]] is irrelevant unless it’s catastrophic.
    • 44:00 Intellectual property – how do you protect it in a world where information is constantly under attack? #[[intellectual property]]
      • [[Tesla]] open sourced their [[patents]] a few years ago. The goal of Tesla is to encourage the use of sustainable energy, so they want to help others that want to make an electric car.
      • The real way you achieve protection is by innovating fast enough. If innovation is high, you won’t need to worry about [[intellectual property]] because competitors will be copying something you did years ago. Innovation per unit of time is what matters. What is your rate of innovation, and is that accelerating or decelerating? [[Big Business]] tends to get less innovative per employee and also sometimes in absolute terms, and it’s likely because of incentives. Incentives must be aligned with innovation. #Ankified
    • 47:30 What are your thoughts on the competition between the [[US]] and [[China]].
      • [[China]] economy is going to be 2-3 time the size of the [[US]] economy, due to their huge population advantage. So, innovation has to close this massive gap in economic output. Economics are the foundation of war.
    • 50:40 How do you create a culture of enthusiasm at [[Tesla]] and [[SpaceX]]?
      • There is a pretty big selection effect, because especially in important engineering roles, they look for people that have demonstrated innovation. As mentioned earlier, the incentives in the company help – they reward innovation and punish lack of innovation.

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Tips From Anki Flashcard Refactoring: Add Enough Knowledge to your Deck and Review your Sources

My flashcard refactoring for today is a reminder of the classic knowledge construction advice: do not add what you do not understand. It is also a reminder of the importance of providing enough related cards in your deck for a piece of knowledge.

Here’s the card I came across that was giving me trouble, related to SQL programming (double-sided):

  • Side 1: Oracle SQL syntax for creating object table
  • Side 2: CREATE TABLE (table name) OF (object type)

When revisiting this card, I realized that I didn’t have a good concept of what “object tables” are, so this is definitely a case of not understanding the material before committing it to spaced repetition.

But the thing is, I wouldn’t have added it if I didn’t have a good understanding of object tables, at the time of adding knowledge to my spaced repetition system. The problem is I forgot the concept of “object tables”, and seeing the answer to this card was not enough to bring it back. I didn’t have any other cards in my deck about “object tables” and how they differ from other related concepts in Oracle SQL such as nested tables.

In a situation like this, it helps to go back to the source, clarify any misunderstanding, and add new cards that solidify your knowledge.

So, in this case, I looked up Oracle documentation and found a great article almost immediately that clarified the meaning. It also provided a bunch of useful nomenclature for closely related concepts, providing further scaffolding for the knowledge. This lead me to add a bunch of cards:

  • Card 1 (Cloze): Objects can be stored in two types of tables: [object tables] and [relational tables].
  • Card 2 (Basic 1-sided Q&A):
    • Q: What’s the difference between object tables and relational tables? (Oracle SQL)
    • A: Object tables store only objects Relational tables store objects with other table data
  • Card 3 (Basic 1-sided Q&A):
    • Q: What does each row represent in an object table? (Oracle SQL)
    • A: An Object

So to recap, here the main lessons from this refactoring:

  1. Don’t add stuff to spaced repetition that you don’t understand
  2. Make sure you add enough knowledge about the concept in your deck, so there is sufficient context for you to understand again when you forget
  3. When dealing with 1 or 2, the solution is to go back to the original source to understand the knowledge and add more relevant material.

For access to my shared Anki deck and Roam Research notes knowledge base as well as regular updates on tips and ideas about spaced repetition and improving your learning productivity, join “Download Mark’s Brain”.

Roam Notes on “Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids” by Bryan Caplan

  • Title:: Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids: Why Being a Great Parent is Less Work and More Fun Than you Think
  • Author:: [[Bryan Caplan]]
  • Reading Status:: [[complete]]
  • Review Status:: [[complete]]
  • Recommended By:: [[Tyler Cowen]]
  • Tags:: #Book #Parenting #genetics #[[nature vs nurture]] #[[reasons to have kids]] #[[impact of parenting]] #shared
  • Roam Notes URL:: link
  • Anki Tag:: caplan_selfish_reasons
  • Anki Deck Link:: link

  • Overview

    • [[Bryan Caplan]] takes a dive into the research on parenting impact, and finds answers that fly in the face of the current Western parenting assumptions and cultural norms. Caplan convincingly argues that many of our common attitudes about our impact on our kids are an illusion and not supported by the best academic research (i.e. Twin Studies that effectively distinguish nature vs nurture). In light of this lack of impact, parents are placing unnecessarily large burdens on themselves.
    • The book is the antithesis to Tiger Mom. It raises a firm, but polite equivalent of the middle finger to spartan, obsessive, anxiety-ridden, stress-inducing style of helicopter parenting that is surprisingly common today. It also rails against a common assumption that parenting must always be hard, and its hardness is an indication that you’re doing a better job.
    • Given that modern parenting is unnecessarily hard, and you can do less work in many areas without sacrificing your child’s development, Caplan concludes that, at the margin, you should consider having more kids, and there are indeed selfish reasons to do so.

  • Summary Notes

    • Four Big Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids (pg. 2) #[[reasons to have kids]]
      • There are many selfish reasons to have more [[kids]], but there are four big reasons we can put on the table right away: #Ankified
        • Parents can sharply improve their lives without hurting their kids. Nature, not nurture, explains most family resemblance, so parents can safely cut themselves a lot of additional slack. #[[nature vs nurture]]
        • Parents are much more worried than they ought to be. Despite the horror stories in the media, kids are much safer today than they were in the “Idyllic Fifties”. #worry #safety
        • Many of the benefits of children come later in life. Kids have high start-up costs, but wise parents weight their initial [[sleep]] deprivation against a lifetime of rewards – including future [[grandchildren]].
        • Self-interest and altruism point in the same direction. Parents who have another child make the world a better place, so you can walk the path of enlightened selfishness with a clear conscience. #[[self-interest]] #altruism
    • Four First Places to Look to Adjust Parenting to be Less Work and More Fun (pp. 22-30) #[[easier parenting]]
      • Before you do something for your child, good to ask yourself three questions: do I enjoy it, does my child enjoy doing it, and are there any long-run benefits. #Ankified
      • There are many potential adjustments to make your life easier, but here are four first places to look:
        • Sleep: Getting your kid to sleep is crucial for livable parenting. The [[Ferber method]] is great for this. Also, mandate regular naps until kids old enough to quietly entertain themselves for an hour. The author kept their kids on nap schedule until they were almost 6 (1-2 years more than needed). Then, switch from nap time to quiet time.
        • Activities: These are often not a break for a parent. Let kids drop any activities enjoyed by neither parent or child. Also, no need to be so negative about “electronic babysitters” (television, video games, computers). If you give mature adults free time, they’ll often relax in front of a TV or computer – what’s so bad about that?
        • Discipline: Remember [[discipline]] is for the child’s welfare, but also to prevent the child from abusing you and the people around them. Discipline should have 3 characteristics: Clarity, Consistency, Consequences. #Ankified
        • Supervision: If your kids want to stretch their wings, you don’t feel like supervising them, and everyone is safe, go for it! #[[supervision]]
    • On Paying Your Kids for Work (pg. 31) #allowance #[[paying your kids]]
      • Caplan recommends paying kids for actual work, and don’t be so stingy about compensation. Don’t pay them for every little thing, but when you want to give kids a major project or recurring chore, make it worth their while.
      • If generous terms fall on deaf ears, you’re probably giving them too much for free. Handing out goodies “just because” is fun, but don’t expect a child with a $40 a week allowance to be hungry for work. #[[To Ankify]]
    • Parent Wish List for Kid Outcomes and their Actual Influence (pp. 46-71) #[[impact of parenting]]
      • [[Health]]: Parents have little / no effect on life expectancy and overall health, maybe a small effect on smoking, drinking, and drug problems.
      • [[Intelligence]]: Parents have little to no long run effect on their children’s intelligence.
      • [[Happiness]]: Parents have little to no long run effect on happiness, self-esteem, unhappiness.
      • [[Success]]: Parents typically want high-[[income]] and fancy degrees for their [[kids]]. Turns out parents have little effect on how much school their kids get, they have little or no effect on how much [[money]] their kids make when they grow up, and no effect on [[grades]].
      • [[Character]]: Parents have little to no effect on conscientiousness or agreeableness (i.e. hardworking, diligent, honest, polite, cooperative, kind, etc), little or no effect on criminal behaviour.
      • [[Values]]: Parents have big effect on religious / political labels, but little on religious / political attitudes and behaviour, moderate influence over when daughters start having sex, little / no effect on teen pregnancy, adult sexual behaviour, marriage, marital satisfaction, divorce, or childbearing.
      • [[Appreciation]]: Parents have a large effect on child’s long-run feeling about their parents and views about their [[childhood]].
    • Are children like clay? (pg. 80) #[[nature vs nurture]]
      • “We often compare children to clay. When they’re soft, you can mold them into any shape you like; after they harden, they stay the way you made them. What common sense and science tell us, however; is that children are more like flexible plastic. Both respond to pressure. Yet when you remove the pressure, both tend to return to their original shape.” #Ankified
    • What the Science of Nature and Nurture Means for Parents (pp. 86-90)
      • Lighten up – If parental investments don’t typically pay off, relaxed parenting is a free lunch – better for parents, no worse for kids.
      • Choose a spouse who resembles the kids you want to have
      • If you want to drastically improve a child’s life, adopt from the third world #adoption
      • Raise your children with kindness and respect
      • Share your creed, but don’t expect miracles
      • Don’t write off your teens (parents affect juvenile antisocial behaviour and sexual behaviour for girls, also good to discourage smoking / drinking / drug use) #Ankified
      • Have more kids
    • Why More People in the World is not a Source of Poverty (pg. 127) #[[zero-sum thinking]] #population #poverty
      • Those who see more people as a source of [[poverty]] are missing half the story: Over the course of their lives, human beings do not just consume, they also produce. Kids eventually grow up and pull their own weight. The world economy is not like a party where everyone splits a birthday cake; it is more like a potluck where everyone brings a dish. #Ankified
    • The Best Way to Understand a Position (pg. 163) #thinking #reasoning #debate #criticism #Ankified
      • The best way to understand a position is to argue on its behalf. You learn as you speak. Sometimes you find that objections are stronger than you realized; other times you discover that they’re weaker than they looked. You may end up abandoning the position – or improving it and returning to the fray. Critics don’t just keep you honest; they show you the light.

For access to my shared Anki deck and Roam Research notes knowledge base as well as regular updates on tips and ideas about spaced repetition and improving your learning productivity, join “Download Mark’s Brain”.